Liquidity & Technical

Liquidity & Technical

The 5-day institutional execution capacity at 20% ADV participation is ₩13.1 billion (~5.1% of market cap), large enough that a fund up to roughly ₩262 billion AUM (~$181M) can build a 5% position inside one trading week — liquidity is not the bottleneck. But the tape has turned: the stock is down 23% in the last month, RSI sits at 38 below the 50 line, MACD has rolled deeply below zero, and 30-day realized volatility (108%) has blown through the 5-year p80 band of 82% — momentum is the dominant signal, and it is bearish.

Price snapshot

Note: a publicly available beta value is not staged for this Korean small-cap; the figure above is an internal estimate based on KOSDAQ semiconductor-equipment comps and should be treated as indicative.

Price vs 50- and 200-day moving averages

Caption. Price is above the 200-day (by 3.9%, marginal) but below the 50-day (by 16.3%). The longer-term structure is still up — SMA 50 above SMA 100 above SMA 200 — but the short-term trend has rolled and the cushion to the 200-day support is thin. Read as a deteriorating uptrend, not a confirmed downtrend.

Relative strength

A broad-market or sector ETF series was not staged for this Korean KOSDAQ-listed ticker (the standard SPY/sector benchmarks do not apply, and a KOSPI proxy was not included in the technicals input). We rely on absolute returns and 52-week position to characterise sponsorship instead:

Three-year total return is +50% (i.e., the post-2022 trough has been bought meaningfully). One-year return is +20% but the entire year's gains were earned in early 2025 — the trajectory has been negative since the August 2025 peak near ₩52,000. The 52-week percentile of 27% confirms the name is in the lower third of its own annual range while peers in the KOSDAQ semi-cap-equipment basket have generally consolidated higher. Without an explicit benchmark line the relative-strength score must remain neutral, but the absolute pattern is one of fading sponsorship, not accumulation.

Momentum — RSI(14) and MACD histogram

RSI(14) sits at 37.6 — below the 50 line that separates bullish from bearish bias, but not yet oversold (under 30). The decline from the early-March reading near 60 has been steady, not capitulatory. The MACD histogram has been below zero for ten consecutive weekly bars and is making lower lows — the May print of −1,330 is the deepest since the August 2025 selloff. Near-term (1–3 month) momentum is bearish, with no incipient divergence yet visible.

Volume, sponsorship, and the top-3 spike days

The three highest-conviction volume days in the 5-year history clustered in regime-change windows (October 2022 trough; December 2023 breakout); all three were UP days, consistent with episodic short-covering rather than steady accumulation. Critically, the recent May 2026 selloff has been accompanied by elevated activity but no single session that qualifies as a capitulation day on this scale — there is no marker yet of forced unwind. ADV 20d (~477k shares) is running 27% above ADV 60d (~376k), consistent with distribution rather than accumulation.

Volatility regime

Current 30-day realized volatility of 108% is above the p80 stressed band (82%) of the full 5-year history — only the 2022 drawdown and the late-2023 spike exceeded this level. Median daily range over the last 60 sessions is 7.9%, almost four times the 2% threshold that flags elevated impact cost for large orders. Wider bands here mean the tape is demanding more risk premium to clear flow, not that the market is calmly absorbing it.

Institutional liquidity panel

The Tech manifest flagged liquidity as "unknown" because the share-count field was not auto-populated, but the count is available from the governance file: 9,366,542 common shares outstanding (free float 9,233,442 after 133,100 treasury), giving an implied market capitalisation of ₩257 billion (~$177M USD) at the latest close.

A. ADV and turnover

Trading turnover is exceptional for a small-cap: ADV value clears roughly 7% of market cap every day and the annualised turnover (252-day) is roughly 12.8x outstanding — i.e., the entire float changes hands more than twelve times a year. This is a retail-heavy KOSDAQ name with deep day-trader sponsorship.

B. Fund-capacity table

At a normal 20% ADV participation rate, a fund can put roughly 5.1% of market cap (₩13.1B) to work over five trading days — enough to support a 5% portfolio position for funds up to ~₩262B AUM (~$181M) or a 2% position for funds up to ~₩655B (~$452M). At a more conservative 10% ADV rate, those AUM thresholds halve. Above roughly ~$500M AUM at a 5% weight, this stock becomes capacity-constrained; below it, it is implementable.

C. Liquidation runway

A 2%-of-issuer-cap position (₩5.1B / ~$3.5M) exits in 2 trading days at 20% ADV or 4 days at 10% — well inside the institutional 5-day threshold. The 5-day institutional limit is breached only above roughly 5% of market cap, which for this issuer is a position size of ~$9M — large in absolute terms only because the company itself is small.

D. Execution friction

Median daily range over the last 60 sessions is 7.93% — almost four times the 2% threshold that signals elevated impact cost. This is consistent with the stressed vol regime and means that even though shares are plentiful, the cost of moving size in a single session can be material. Spread the build over 3–5 sessions rather than chasing intraday.

Bottom line on liquidity. The largest issuer-level size that clears the five-day threshold at 20% ADV is ~5% of market cap (~₩13B / ~$9M); the more conservative 10% ADV figure is ~2.5% (~₩6.5B / ~$4.5M). Liquidity is not the constraint for any single fund under ~$180M AUM at a 5% weight.

Technical scorecard and stance

Stance — bearish on a 3-to-6 month horizon. The dominant features of the tape are a 23% one-month drawdown, a deep MACD rollover, and realized volatility above the p80 stressed band. Price is sitting on its 200-day support with only a thin (~3.9%) cushion. We need either a reclaim of ₩32,800 (the 50-day SMA), which would invalidate the rollover and restart the medium-term uptrend, or a clean break of ₩26,400 (the 200-day SMA), which would confirm the prior uptrend is dead and open downside toward the ₩22,000–₩24,000 prior consolidation range, and ultimately the ₩18,390 52-week low.

Liquidity is not the constraint. A fund under ~₩260B (~$180M) AUM can build or exit a 5% position inside one week at 20% ADV without becoming the market. The right action for new capital is watchlist, not buy: wait for either the bullish reclaim above ₩32,800 (entry trigger) or a clear capitulation flush at ₩26,400 (better risk-reward entry into the 200-day). Trim or hedge any existing position into the current price level.